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  • Essay / Essay on Macroeconomics - 3217

    1221615Data Analysis and Interpretation5.1 Introduction:This study aims to examine the impact of macroeconomic variables on the stock returns of the Indian banking sector. This study measures the variation in bank stock returns based on economic variables such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the exchange rate (ex rate). The CPI is a measure of inflation; The exchange rate is the measurement of the Indian Rupee (INR) against foreign currencies like USD, SGD and JPY. The data collection of the study is based on secondary data. Data for the variables (CPI, exchange rate) were obtained from the RBI website. The monthly stock price data of the 5 banks (HDFC Bank, AXIS Bank, ICICI Bank, IDBI Bank and YES Bank) were obtained from the NSE websites. The study data was taken over a period of 36 months, which is the data for the most recent three years, from January 1, 2009 to December 31, 2011, in order to measure the impact of the chosen variables on the stock market returns of banks, after the recession. Data for all variables are monthly. Studies like Ibrahim (1999), Patra and Poshakwale (2006) and Liow et al. (2006) capture long-term volatility movements using monthly returns to avoid spurious correlation problems. The choice of banks is guided by the fact that they are companies listed on the NSE F&O segment. The statistical package used is MS EXCEL Windows 7 version. In order to analyze the co-movements between the dependent and independent variables, a simple regression method is used. 5.2 Research Gaps of the Study: The global stock market still deals with currency exchange. For this factor, we expect the exchange rate to have a negative impact on banks' stock returns. So, we assume that when a country's currency becomes higher, it will be in the middle of the paper i.e. less than 0.5 and it is even negative for IDBI and HDFC banks. . There is therefore no significant relationship between the 2 variables. Conclusion: From the analysis, we can conclude that inflation has an impact on the stock returns of banks, but to a very small extent. Therefore, the null hypothesis is rejected and the alternative hypothesis is accepted, i.e., inflation has a significant impact on the stock returns of the bank. Furthermore, the F-statistic values ​​and probability values ​​of the two independent variables, i.e., the impact of exchange rates and inflation show a positive relationship with bank stock returns. The reasons why bank stock returns don't have much impact on the exchange rate. and inflation could be due to the fact that many other factors could impact the stock returns of banks, which may be internal or external to the banks. .