The Black SwanThis book is a philosophical essay on the importance of chance. Author Nassim Nicholas Taleb defends the thesis that the most improbable events always happen in the end. This kind of event is called Black Swan. A Black Swan is a random, highly improbable event that is difficult to predict and impacts our lives. More precisely, according to the author, it meets the following three characteristics: “It is an aberration, its impact is extremely strong and our human nature pushes us to concoct ex post explanations for its appearance, making it explainable and predictable. » The author speaks of blindness in the face of chance, and especially events which particularly stand out from our expectations. Three parts constitute Taleb's reasoning: - An analysis. of how to collect historical and current events and the distortions inherent in this perception - A study of errors in understanding the future and the limits of science - the question of extreme events and our reference to the Gaussian curve/bell curve. The title of the book refers to the story that before the discovery of Australia, all swans, without exception, were thought to be white. It is subtitled: The Impact of the Very Improbable. This is what he mainly talks about but also about our blindness in the face of “Black Swans”. ", these "aberrations" defined as unexpected events because they are very improbable (which have never occurred in the past), and have significant impacts that we explain and try to explain. According to the author, "Our world is dominated by the extreme, the unknown and the very improbable (improbable according to our current knowledge)". Too often, we tend to confuse improbable and impossible, we lock ourselves into thought patterns which...... middle of paper ......e forecasters and economists (who are absolutely wrong all the time) by considering them as both dishonest and incompetent It is an essay which lives up to its name and which perfectly fulfills its role Polemic. and perhaps even partisan, he presents a subjective analysis and a personal reflection, and opens the debate. He does not pretend to provide demonstrations and can allow himself to be approximated because it is not about either. a scientific treatise or a study Metaphorical examples are widely used. Even if some of the themes are already known to people and readers, the unorthodox way of discussing them is original and stimulating. This essay also has the merit of being distinguished by a sense of humor, sometimes fiery, with a cheerful tone which does not detract from its quality, underlining and confirming what we know: it is not necessary to 'be boring to talk about serious things..