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Essay / The J-Curve Phenomenon in Jamaica: Fact or Fiction?
Much research has been carried out on the influence of the increase in the exchange rate on the trade balance deficit of developing countries. This article contributes to the literature by researching and testing whether the J-curve phenomenon exists in Jamaica. Meade (1988) stated that because of the rapid decline in the U.S. exchange rate since early 1985 and because monthly trade statistics were examined so thoroughly for any signs of recovery in nominal trade balance, the J-curve phenomenon has received much attention. Statistics often imply that the negative effect of depreciation is reflected in the J-curve as the continuation of the nominal trade deficit. Between the beginning of 1985 and 1988, the exchange value of the US dollar against the currencies of other countries recorded a significant depreciation. Deficits recorded in the trade account were reflected in the current account deficit. Meade described the importance of the exchange rate for the trade account as well as the current account through the use of the J-curve, emphasizing that the phenomenon is used as a long-term objective to reduce deficits, but that In the short term, depreciation will increase the nominal deficits accumulated by a country. More recently, Bahamani-Oskooee and Ratha (2007) provided a summary of the J-curve phenomenon, the expectations, and the effects that will occur under this phenomenon. They said that due to the lag structure, devaluation or depreciation of the currency would first worsen the trade balance and improve it later, giving rise to a trend that resembles the letter J, d 'where the J-curve phenomenon. This phenomenon tests the short-term dynamics of the temporal evolution of the trade balance after devaluation or depreciation. While the exchange rate...... middle of paper...... International Monetary Fund, 2006. PrintGordon, Peter-John. The Jamaican Economy: Recent Developments and Outlook, 2001. Print Haughton, Andre. Jamaica faces a possible currency crisis. The Jamaican Gleaner, 2013 Print.Investopedia. www.investopedia.comJessen, Anneke and Christopher Vignoles. Jamaica: trade, integration and the quest for growth. Buenos Aires: Institute for Latin American and Caribbean Integration, 2005. PrintMeade, Ellen E. Exchange rate, adjustment and the J-curve, 1988. PrintPattillo, Catherine, Hélène Poirson and Luca Antonio Ricci. IMF Working Paper: External Debt and Growth, issues 2002-2069. International Monetary Fund, 2002 PrintThe World Bank. The Path to Sustainable Growth in Jamaica. Washington, DC: International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / World Bank, 2004. PrintThe World Bank. www.banquemondiale.org