Positive economic growth is represented by a rightward shift of the AS curve. Similarly, negative economic growth decreases the natural level of real GDP, causing the AS curve to shift to the left. The chart below shows New Zealand's GDP growth rate and inflation rate. Typically, higher inflation is caused by economic growth. If AD grows faster than AS, a higher inflation rate will be expected. If AD increases faster than AS, economic growth is higher than the long-term sustainable growth rate. Global crude oil prices have plunged to their lowest level in five years. The impact on inflation, financial markets and the economy will be profound. Curved AS will change to AS1. Lower global oil prices will reduce New Zealand inflation directly via oil prices, and indirectly by reducing costs for many businesses (i.e. couriers and taxis). It now seems likely that inflation will fall and stay below 1% for a full year. The Reserve Bank is more likely to tighten macroprudential policy than to ease it in the coming year. The report revised the GDP forecast for 2015 upwards to 3.4%. The New Zealand dollar may fall further against the US dollar, but will remain strong against other currencies, notably the Australian dollar. Professor Paul Collier argued: “Economic growth is not a panacea; but the lack of growth is a killer.” Economic growth can pose some problems. Economic growth is