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  • Essay / Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Trade in India

    Trade has positive impacts on the economic growth of the economy, so the aim of governments has always been to boost exports and explore markets for locally produced products to achieve higher economic levels. growth. Despite the global crisis, India is expected to experience stable economic growth. Projections of the Indian economy by the IMF, World Bank and United Nations predict positive growth in production and trade. Trade facilitation is a priority of the government to reduce costs and transition times and thus make Indian exports more competitive. There are fourteen export promotion councils sponsored by the Ministry of Commerce. They exercise consultative and executive functions guided by the 2015-2020 foreign trade policy. Say no to plagiarism. Get a tailor-made essay on “Why Violent Video Games Should Not Be Banned”? Get the original essay There is an extensive theoretical and empirical economic literature on the impact of trade liberalization on the macroeconomic conditions of the economy. Adam Smith and David Ricardo, the classical economists, strongly favored free trade between economies. The term internal trade refers to trade within the common monetary area. The decline in exchange rates will depend to a large extent on the corresponding trade levels. In order to get an idea of ​​the magnitude of the variables that depend on the exchange rate, econometric estimations were carried out. The IMF (1984) produced a General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) study on the impact of exchange rate volatility on world trade. Over the past two decades, there have been notable cases of high exchange rate volatility. This situation is of particular concern to developing countries and emerging market economies. As a growing share of international transactions undertaken by multinational companies, exchange rate volatility could have a diminishing impact on global trade. Other changes in the global economy may have reduced the impact of exchange rate volatility. Rose (2000) examines common currency trading arrangements. During the 1980s and 1990s, exchange rate fluctuations increased currency and balance of payments crises. A 1984 study reinforced the conclusion that there is no one-to-one relationship between exchange rate volatility and trade flows. . The general assumption that trade has a negative effect on exchange rate fluctuations depends on a number of specific assumptions and is not necessarily valid in all cases, particularly in general equilibrium models. in which other variables move along with exchange rates. Turkcan and Keskinel (2009) examined the impact of exchange rate volatility on the fragmentation of the US auto parts industry. Mundell's (1961) optimal currency area hypothesis suggests an opposite direction of causality, in which trade flows stabilize real exchange rate fluctuations, thereby reducing real exchange rates. rate volatility. Most existing studies have focused on the effects of exchange rate regimes or volatility on trade effectively assuming that the exchange rate process is driven by exogenous shocks and is not affected by other endogenous variables. A large number of studies have examined trade and exchange rate volatility. in two large frames. A studyacademic on exchange rate volatility on trading is very important and relevant in the context of its structural existence. In the present study, the following analyzes are available in the area of ​​exchange rate volatility with macroeconomic variables. The research studies conducted on exchange rate volatility are mainly related to different macroeconomic variables. Michael D McKenzie and RMIT Melbourne (1999) examined the impact of exchange rate volatility on international trade flows, which remains unresolved theoretically and empirically. This article reviews the extensive literature in the field to attempt to identify the main issues that have contributed to the development of the debate and examine whether a general direction towards consensus can be found. M Kabir Hassan (2001)examined Is SAARC a viable economic bloc? Data from the Gravity Model Intra-South Asian Regional Cooperation (SAARC) trade appears to be very low compared to other existing regional blocs. This could be due to a normal outcome or unexplored business opportunities. Increasing trade within this region could then improve welfare. This study attempts to make a formal analysis of these issues and estimates a gravity model of international trade to examine whether intra-SAARC is lower or higher than predicted by an economic model. This provides insight into the structure of comparative advantage in SAARC countries, which helps explain why intra-SAARC trade is low and how trade between them can be increased. This also helps us understand the possibility of a trade creation and trade diversion effect arising from the South Asian preferential trade agreements among SAARC countries. While the gravity model has been widely used to measure bilateral trade between countries, to my knowledge it has never been used to measure intra-SAARC trade. The results of our gravity model suggest that SAARC member countries have not yet achieved trade-creating advantages. Appropriate policies must be formulated for greater regional integration. Trade liberalization in SAARC countries offers significant gains for all economies in the region. Efforts should be made to liberalize border trade and strengthen bilateral trade relations through the removal of tariff and non-tariff barriers within the overall framework of preferential trade agreements in South Asia. Aristotelous (2001) examined exchange rate volatility, exchange rate regime and trade volume. : evidence of the export function between the United Kingdom and the United States. The study period extends from 1889 to 1999. The tools used in the study are gravitational models. As a result, neither the volatility of exchange rates nor the different exchange rate regimes in force over the last century have had any effect on the volume of exports. Baak, Mahmood and Vixathep (2002) studied the impact of exchange rate volatility on the exports of four East Asian countries. (Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore and Thailand). Their results indicate that exchange rate volatility has negative impacts on exports in both the short and long term. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee and Scott W. Hegerty (2007) examined exchange rate volatility and trade flows. This article has reviewed the extensive empirical literature, up to 2005, to assess the main trends in the modeling and estimation of these trade flows at the aggregate, bilateral and sectoral levels. The increase in exchange rate volatility since 1973 has had undetermined effects on